中国石化新闻网讯 据能源之声网站5月17日报道，据能源市场研究和咨询公司韦斯特伍德全球能源集团（Westwood Global Energy Group）预测，到2027年，海湾合作委员会（GCC）地区的钻探需求较2019年将增长53%。

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根据预测，随着沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国计划提高产能，中东陆上钻探公司将迎来繁荣时期。

据陆上能源服务高级分析师托德·詹森（Todd Jensen）的一份报告预测，到2027年，中东GCC地区对陆上钻机的需求将达到25%。

该机构表示，中东和北非(MENA)目前有1159台陆地钻机。其中，GCC有526台，占中东和北非地区的45%。另外北非有317台，中东非GCC有316台。

GCC成员国的需求在疫情低迷期间保持“相对稳定”。到2022年，钻探活动恢复到2019年的水平。

据预测，到2027年，GCC地区的钻机需求较2019年将增长53%。这将受到所有主要陆上生产商产能增加的推动，许多所需项目已经通过了FID，证实了预测。

同期，中东非海湾合作委员会国家的需求将下降12%，而北非将增长8%。

GCC也将在钻探机械利用率方面引领中东和北非地区。2023年，GCC成员国的利用率将达到70%，2027年将升至78%。中东和北非地区今年的平均利用率为39%，到2027年将上升至42%。

其他利用率上升显著的国家包括阿尔及利亚，从47%上升到60%，伊拉克从37%上升到46%。这两个国家低于GCC的“强国”，但“两者都有很大的上升潜力”。

阿尔及利亚正受益于其与欧洲的天然气出口计划。伊拉克“设定了雄心勃勃的生产目标，这将需要大幅提高其钻机的利用率，远远超出韦斯特伍德目前的预测”。

费用率竞争

沙特阿美和Adnoc通过各自的附属公司主导本国的钻探市场。然而，更有意义的是，国际承包商也还有发展的空间。

韦斯特伍德指出，一家全球石油巨头在该地区拥有80台陆地钻机，是最多的，其中44台在科威特。与此同时，KCA Deutag收购了Saipem的陆上钻机队，使其钻机数量从45台增加到77台。

GCC国家的钻机马力更大，日费率更高。北非地区日均费率为1.8万美元，而GCC地区日均为2.3万美元。

阿联酋的钻机费用率最高，有些达到了4万～4.5万美元。然而，Adnoc Drilling公司的主导地位“限制了国际承包商竞争合同的能力”。

本周公布了第一季度业绩的Adnoc Drilling公司，称其陆上收入同比增长11%。该公司最近同意购买10台新的混合动力陆地钻机。

郝芬 译自 能源之声

原文如下：

Onshore drilling to boom in Middle East, Westwood predicts

By 2027, rig demand in the GCC area will be 53% higher than 2019, Westwood’s Jensen predicted.

Onshore drillers are poised for boom times in the Middle East, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to boost capacity, Westwood Global Energy Group predicts.

A note from senior analyst onshore energy services Todd Jensen predicts 25% demand for land rigs in the Middle East GCC to 2027.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) currently have 1,159 land rigs, Westwood said. Of these, 526 units are in the GCC, or 45% of the MENA fleet. Another 317 are in North Africa and 316 in the non-GCC Middle East.

Demand in the GCC states stayed “relatively steady” during the pandemic downturn. By 2022, activity was back at 2019 levels.

By 2027, rig demand in the GCC area will be 53% higher than 2019, Westwood’s Jensen predicted. “This will be driven by production capacity increases at all major onshore producers, with many of the projects required already having passed FID, supporting the forecast.”

Over the same period, the non-GCC states in the Middle East will see demand drop 12%, while North Africa will have an increase of 8%.

The GCC will also lead MENA in terms of utilisation. GCC states will have utilisation of 70% in 2023, rising to 78% in 2027. MENA will average 39% this year, rising to 42% by 2027.

Other bright spots include Algeria, which will increase from 47% to 60%, and Iraq, rising from 37% to 46%. These two countries are below the GCC “powerhouses”, Jensen wrote, but “there is significant upside potential to both”.

Algeria is benefiting from its gas export plans with Europe. Iraq has “set ambitious production targets, which will require a major increase in utilisation of its fleet, far beyond Westwood’s current forecast”.

Rate race

Saudi Aramco and Adnoc dominate drilling markets in their home turfs through their own affiliates. More broadly, though, there is scope for international contractors.

A global magnate has 80 land rigs in the region, the largest, Westwood noted, with 44 in Kuwait. Meanwhile, KCA Deutag’s purchase of Saipem’s onshore drilling fleet has taken it from 45 to 77 rigs.

The GCC countries have rigs with more horsepower and dayrates are higher. Where in North Africa, dayrates have averaged $18,000, in the GCC the average is $23,000.

The highest rates are seen in the UAE, with some reaching $40,000-45,000. However, Adnoc Driling’s dominance “restricts international contractors’ ability to compete for contracts”, Jensen said.

Adnoc Drilling, reporting its first quarter results this week, said its onshore revenues were up 11% on the year. In a sign of its expectations, the company recently agreed to purchase 10 new hybrid-powered land rigs.